Research: AI, welfare, climate and inequality: What could shape disabled people’s lives in the UK over the next 20 years?

What is the research about?

Disability Foresight Research: UK was commissioned by the Cabinet Office Disability Unit and carried out by the National Centre for Social Research (NatCen). Published on 30 July 2026, it explores how social, technological, economic, environmental, political and values-based trends could affect disabled people in the UK over the next five, 10 and 20 years. The work combined a high-level evidence review, a policymaker workshop, interviews with disabled people’s organisations (DPOs) and three online foresight workshops using speculative world-building.

What was the aim?

The research was designed to help government and other stakeholders better anticipate and respond to the evolving needs of disabled people. It asked which emerging trends are likely to affect disabled people over the next five, 10 and 20 years, and how those trends might create new challenges or opportunities. The workshops deliberately encouraged participants to imagine futures beyond current policy constraints so that less obvious possibilities and routes to change could emerge.

Who took part?

Twelve Disabled People’s Organisations (DPOs) took part in interviews and workshops: ADHD Babes; Anxiety UK; British Deaf Association; Deaf Ethnic Women’s Association; Disability Action Northern Ireland; Disability Rights UK; Disability Stockport; Inclusion Scotland; Manchester Deaf Centre; Mencap Cymru; RNIB; and SignHealth. They were selected to include different impairment groups, regions, organisation sizes and intersectional perspectives.

A separate scoping workshop involved six representatives from the Department for Education, Cabinet Office, Department for Communities (Northern Ireland), and the Department for Work and Pensions.

“Disabled people and our allies are forced to fight the challenges of today, such as insufficient incomes, barriers to education and  employment, inadequate social care and housing, however, it is also really important to consider where the world is moving to, so that we can build in accessibility and inclusion  from the outset.
“To do this, we need Government to listen to our concerns and be open to creating a more inclusive society. Later this year, the Government will consult on a Disability Plan, let’s hope they are thinking big and thinking long term, as we definitely need radical action to build a better world for Disabled citizens.”

Fazilet Hadi, Head of Policy at Disability Rights UK

Five key findings

1. Disability prevalence and demand are expected to rise: The evidence review identified a growing disabled population and continuing barriers to employment, services and participation. This has implications for public spending and for future demand on health, social care, welfare and other public services.
   
2. Economic and environmental change may hit disabled people harder. Cost-of-living pressures, higher disability-related costs, inaccessible infrastructure and climate change can all have disproportionate effects. Climate policies can also create new barriers when disability inclusion is overlooked.
   
3. Technology and AI could improve inclusion or deepen exclusion. Accessible technology could support independence, employment and participation, while biased or inaccessible systems could create additional barriers. The research highlighted the need for disabled people to be involved in how new technology is designed and used.
   
4. DPOs saw government as the main driver of positive change. Participants repeatedly identified investment in public services and infrastructure, enforcement of the Equality Act 2010, adoption of the Social Model of Disability, and greater inclusion of disabled people in policymaking and public life as important enablers.
   
5. Attitudes, discrimination and representation remain central. Participants described persistent negative stereotypes and exclusionary attitudes, with some feeling that attitudes had become more hostile over the previous 10 or 20 years. Greater representation of disabled people in leadership and decision-making was seen as a route to more inclusive policy and practice.

Research findings

The workshops focused on six themes: AI, employment, climate change, welfare, cost of living and social attitudes.

Participants created three possible futures:

1. a world with no climate change and a high standard of living;
2. an equitable world despite a high cost of living;
3. and an AI-assisted world where disabled people are in full employment.

The first was the preferred future. A notable outcome was the contrast between the mainly negative trends found in the evidence review and the more optimistic futures developed by DPOs, which identified practical enablers for change.

Recommendations and next steps

The report’s formal recommendations focus mainly on further research and engagement. It proposes:

• more foresight work with DPOs, including exploration of the future role of DPOs and the wider third sector;
• testing specific policy proposals, such as Net Zero measures or government uses of AI, with disabled people;
• using foresight methods with other marginalised groups and people facing intersecting disadvantages; and
• further work on areas that received less attention in this study, particularly healthcare, education and housing.

For SEND, the research is particularly relevant because it points to growing need across education, health and social care while emphasising direct involvement of disabled people in the policies and services intended to support them.

Source

Cabinet Office Disability Unit / NatCen, Disability Foresight Research: UK – Final Report, published 30 July 2026. Read the full report on GOV.UK

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