SEND 2026: Tracking a decade of rising need with earlier EHCPs and moves to specialist provision for secondary

It’s that time of year again: The Department for Education (DfE) has published its annual statistics on special educational needs in England.

These days, the DfE does a great job of making this data available for people to play with. If there are very specific things you want to look for, then you can query the data yourself here.

But if you just want the main facts and figures, then we’ve summarised those for you below – with some colourful and interactive infographics too.

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What does this data cover?

The DfE asks schools to complete a census several times a year. The figures in this SEND data release are from the January 2026 census. This data is collected from state-funded nurseries, state-funded schools, hospital schools, alternative provision, and non-maintained special schools. The census also collects some top-level data from the independent school sector.

But because it’s a school census, it leaves out large parts of the SEND population. It doesn’t cover further education, sixth form colleges, apprenticeships, or supported internships. It doesn’t cover specialist post-16 colleges, there’s no real depth to the coverage of the independent school sector either. Children and young people with SEND who are off-roll are completely absent.

On top of that, some extra health warnings to bear in mind:

  • SEND Identification: The data is reported by individual schools, and each of them have their own way of identifying SEND. There’s a lot of inconsistency in SEND identification at school level, and also between the state and private sectors. Looking at the percentage of SEND pupils in a school isn’t always a great way to judge its inclusivity.
  • SEND classification: The terminology that the DfE and schools use to sort pupils into different categories of SEND isn’t always useful. For example, you can’t use this data to work out the number of pupils with ADHD, or Developmental Language Disorder, dyslexia or dyspraxia – although these days, there is a classification for pupils with Down Syndrome. The DfE is eventually going to overhaul these classifications, but probably not for a while yet.

The 2026 Snapshot

There aren’t usually big swings in this data from year to year, and that’s the case for 2026 too. The number and percentage of pupils identified with SEND is continuing to grow, both for those on SEN Support and for those with an Education, Health and Care Plan (EHCP).

In January 2026, there were 8.9 million pupils recorded on the English school census in state schools, mainstream independent schools, and non-maintained special schools. Of those, roughly 1.86 million (20.8% of them) were reported to have a special educational need.

That’s higher than last year, but it’s not the highest ever: you’d have to go back to 2010 for that—as you can see from the infographic below. People talk loosely about an ‘explosion’ in SEND identification, and dimmer people sometimes talk about an explosion in ‘SEND diagnosis’ but that’s not really the case.

To some extent, we’ve been here before: what’s different this time is that the number of pupils needing statutory support has grown steadily, and schools’ need to secure additional resources from LAs for high-needs support has also grown steadily.

Incidence of SEN 2010-2026. Interactive Infographics here

So in all, we have 1.86 million pupils identified with SEND in January 2026. 71% of those– 1.32 million, or 14.8% of the total school population – were on SEN Support. These pupils are supported almost entirely through resources delegated down to individual mainstream schools and academy trusts.

The rest of them – roughly 538,000 of them, or 6% of the school population – have an EHCP. That’s a number that’s grown a lot: by 11.6% on last year, and more than double the number of school pupils on statutory support a decade ago.

Bear in mind that this 6% figure includes pupils in special schools and alternative provision.

If it’s mainstream EHCP incidence you want, then the percentages are:

  • 4.1% in state mainstream primary,
  • 3.5% in state mainstream secondary, and
  • roughly 2% in mainstream independent

Types of SEND in schools—and where the children are educated

The types of SEN most commonly identified in state schools haven’t changed.

  1. Speech, language and communication is still the most commonly identified category of primary need.
  2. Autism is still the most commonly identified need for school pupils with an EHCP.

You might be forgiven for thinking otherwise, given the headlines and policy hand-wringing over the last 18 months, but the vast majority of school pupils with SEND are still educated in mainstream schools and in the state sector, as they have been for many years.

  • 88% of pupils with SEND are educated in mainstream settings, and
  • 92% of pupils with SEND are educated in the state sector.

Has VAT on private school fees made a difference?

The new government added VAT to mainstream independent school fees at the start of 2025. We now have data from January 2026, although it still needs a fair bit of salt when interpreting it.

Stripping out independent schools that are designated in this data as special schools, the data shows a slight (1.7%) increase over the year in the overall number of pupils identified with SEND in mainstream independent schools, and a much chunkier (19%) year-on-year increase in the number of pupils with an EHCP.

But of course, there’s no way from this data to work out how many pupils have switched from independent to state sectors, and of those that have, the reason why. The dividing line between independent mainstream and independent special can be blurry, and different schools and school types identify SEND in different ways.

Tale of a decade: 2026 vs 2016

The government has announced its intention to implement deep (and largely unpopular for parents) reforms to the SEND system, and we’ve covered these plans pretty extensively on SNJ over the last few months.

There are a few hints in the school SEND census data that help explain what’s driving reformers to do what they’re doing.

Looking back over the last ten years of this data, there are some changes (aside from the growth in numbers) that will probably have caused conniptions around central and local government coffee machines.

Firstly, the incidence of pupils granted EHCPs at an early point in their school lives has grown a lot over the last decade – check the graph below for more.

Incidence of SEN by school year groups 2026 vs 2016 Interactive Infographics here

A decade ago, the proportion of school pupils on SEN Support in a given year group would rise steadily up to Year 6, then drop slowly throughout secondary school. That’s pretty much still the case today.

Similarly, in 2016, the proportion of school pupils in a given year group with EHCPs started low in the younger year groups, and slowly and steadily rose from year group to year group.

That’s not happening any more. Nowadays, there tends to be a big increase in EHCP incidence in Key Stage 1 of primary, and that incidence stays pretty steady until Year 11.

Much of the policy push for early intervention and meeting need before an EHCP is required is going to have been driven by what these numbers show.

Secondly, you’ll probably have seen in the proposed SEND reforms that there’s going to be a lot of emphasis on reviewing EHCPs at phase transitions—particularly when pupils move from primary to secondary schools.

This graph helps explain why the high-priced help are so focused on this, and why they are so determined to clamp down on appeal rights.

Pupils with EHCPs – State Mainstream and State Special / AP Placements, January 2026
Interactive Infographics here

The graph above shows the number of school pupils with EHCPs in mainstream schools and those with EHCPs in state special or alternative provision settings. The main bit of the graph to focus on is the change in numbers between Year 6 and Year 7, which in most parts of England is the change between primary and secondary school. The graph strongly indicates that each year, thousands of pupils with EHCPs are moving from mainstream schools to state special schools when they shift from primary school to secondary school.

It’s pretty clear from the reforms that the government wants to see a lot less of this in the future. So they’re trying to beef up mainstream provision, and they’re also attempting to crimp families’ ability to appeal against local authority EHCP placement decisions.

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Base? How low can you go

One of the main ways that government plans to beef up mainstream SEND provision is by increasing the number of mainstream ‘inclusion bases,’ particularly in secondary schools. Non-statutory guidance for inclusion bases is currently being finalised.

For now, the data splits these into two types: SEN units, where pupils spend most of their classroom time; and resourced provision, where pupils spend some, but not most of their time. These are DfE definitions, and it’s far from clear that schools use them when they punch their data into the SEND census return.

According to the figures, both these types of base are already on the increase. In January 2026, 519 schools reported that they had a SEN unit (60 more than in 2025), and 1,309 schools reported that they had a resourced provision (92 more than in 2025).

In the reported census data, these SEN units varied greatly in size. Some schools only claimed to have one pupil on roll in their SEN units, others claimed to have over 100 pupils. The median number of pupils in a SEN unit in January 2026 was 13-14.

Similarly, the size of the reported SEN resourced provisions varied a lot. Fifty schools claimed to have a resourced provision supporting just one pupil, while one school in West Sussex reported it had an RP that supported nearly 300 pupils. The median resourced provision supported 11 pupils.

DfE has gently hinted that it has some work to do to improve data quality for mainstream inclusion bases. They’re correct—it’s very hard to know what a typical, replicable and high-quality mainstream inclusion base looks like from available data. Which, given the hefty load that these bases are going to be carrying under SEND reform, is a major problem.

The SEND stats infographic

SEND Stats in England 2026 Interactive Infographics here

Infographics by Tania Tirraoro. You can also download the set as a PDF here

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